It seems like every day recently, something new lands in the news cycle—sometimes contradicting what was announced a few hours before. Tariffs are on. Now they’re off again. When world events are moving this quickly, it is hard to keep track of what is actually happening, and what it means for the economy and your business. That’s why it is more important than ever to remain flexible, careful, and watch objective data rather than the headlines.

Volatility and uncertainty are through the roof. Businesses are finding it hard to guess what policy environment they’ll be operating in for the next four years. Will there be tariffs on Canada and Mexico and on the EU? What will the ultimate tariff on China be? What could reciprocal tariffs look like? Will consumers get scared and stop spending? How stringent will future immigration and labour migration policy actions be? This is an unusually volatile and confusing time to be trying to figure out what the operating environment is.

So it is important, now more than ever, to watch economic data carefully. I suggest that business owners should at least monitor the below data:-

• Business & Consumer Confidence Surveys: The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for Malta reflects confidence levels across sectors. This is likely the most important pre-cursor of economic expectations. There is also the Central Bank of Malta Business Conditions Index that helps businesses gauge sentiment.These are both published with each economic update report issued by the Central Bank. The latest one can be seen HERE.

• Inflation Rate: A rising inflation rate may signal higher costs for businesses and consumers. Looking on the Eurostat website to analyse Malta’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and how the various subcomponents are comparing to the European average is important to understand if inflation is coming from abroad or internally generated in Malta. The Eurostat website to analyse HICP can be accessed HERE.

• Employment & Unemployment Rates: Low unemployment suggests a strong & tight labour market but potential wage pressures. High unemployment may indicate weak consumer spending. NSO publishes monthly & periodic labour market statistics which business leaders would do well to review. The latest NSO statistics on the labour market can be seen HERE.

• Banking Sector Reports: Bank lending trends indicate business confidence in investing. These are published in the Central Bank Quarterly updates. The latest one can be seen HERE.

• GDP Growth: s GDP growth trends to gauge overall economic expansion or contraction. These are published by NSO and can be seen HERE

• Tourism data: Tourism is an important economic driver; look at monthly arrivals and spending trends from NSO is important. These can be seen HERE.

• Trade data: Trade balance and import/export data help assess Malta’s international business activity. These can be seen HERE and HERE.

In conclusion, businesses are operating in a confusing and volatile time, with no end in sight. Rather than panicking, they should take a page out of Britain’s wartime playbook: “Keep calm and watch the data.” or otherwise seek external help to have someone watch and analyse the data for them.